000
FXUS62 KTAE 031856
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
155 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER AIR PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
A RIDGE AXIS FROM MEXICO TO THE ALASKAN COAST AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A CLIPPER SHORT
WAVE IS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
THE GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA. THE REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...PROVIDING A DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY REBOUND FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 70S. OVER
THE MARINE AREA...WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE IN SITU TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
SEAS 3-5 FT.

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z MODELS
PORTRAY A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN...WITH THE CURRENT WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH
CONFIGURATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CLIPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE CWA. IN ITS WAKE...A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO EAST OF THE
MS RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER COOL START WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...WHICH ARE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 70S. THE IMPACT OF THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND A DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY...
THE RIDGING BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED EASTWARD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BY LATE TUESDAY...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN MS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT
WE WILL JUST SHOW SILENT 10 POPS. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THAT
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG AT VLD AND ABY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE VEERING TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS BEFORE A BRIEF RESPITE ON
WEDNESDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW
35 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. LONGER DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MAY REQUIRE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   46  79  47  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   54  78  55  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        49  77  48  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        48  77  46  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA      48  79  47  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    48  81  50  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  53  77  54  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/MARINE...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WOOL